The most interesting thing to me about the aftermath of Boris Nemtsov’s murder in Russia is Ukrainian President Poroshenko’s assertion that Nemtsov was about to “reveal persuasive evidence about the involvement of Russian armed forces in Ukraine.” The Washington Post barely mentioned this and the New York Times overlooked it entirely, but if it has any credibility, it increases the likelihood that the Kremlin had Nemtsov killed.
Putin’s denial of Russian military involvement in Ukraine is the most important part of his foreign policy right now, because it allows him to accomplish the territorial expansion he wants while avoiding unified international isolation.
Right now, only Western Europe and America really care about what Putin is doing in Ukraine. By conquering his neighbor using hired thugs instead of military personnel, Putin can continue to claim that the people of eastern Ukraine are independently revolting against their national government. This gives much of the international community cover to keep going about their business despite the frightening-early-20th-century-outrage level of Putin's actions.
An official invasion, with tanks rolling in under Russian flags, would draw resounding global condemnation, including from countries who would rather not take the side of the United States in a conflict. We learned from Iraq that the world community really doesn't like it when big, powerful countries invade little ones. Russia would be truly isolated.
Without proof that Russian troops and equipment are in Ukraine, the West’s ability to marshal diplomatic and economic pressure on Putin is limited. If Nemtsov really was going to reveal such proof, it would have put Putin’s whole Ukraine project in jeopardy.
I hope that the Post and the Times will look into this further, but it’s doubtful it would matter, since government investigators were seen at Nemtsov’s residence hours after his death, removing papers and hard drives. It looks like Putin has been able to end this latest threat using his favorite demonstrated method: hiring nameless thugs and denying involvement.
It’s a little sad that, despite a global consensus that imperialism is a bad thing, an authoritarian power can still conquer small neighbors so long as it doesn’t use real soldiers.